paladin2019 wrote:Both Coalition Forces (CF) and AQI are perceived as outsiders. Among other ways AQI has tried to shed this stigma, besides the bvious "We're Muslims, too," is by attempting to marry locals. Not well received, very indicative of a desire to never leave. Take it for what it's worth.
Interesting, and logical. Like I said, AQI is unlikely to lose any momentum while the US is around. They've had Iraq on the books for quite some time, as bin Ladin said that two of the major war-zones in the next 10 years would be Iraq and Afghanistan back in 1995-6. It doesn't surprise me that there would be some long term aspirations.
Sunni/Shi'a rivalry? Saddam was able to keep it in check, to maintain an Iraqi identity (however shallow(?)), and to aspire to some of what we consider "good" western ideals (education, secularism, gender equality). He was also not the most benign of dictators. Is this what Iraq needs now, representative democracy later?
Well he did manage to keep it in check by gassing people. I'm not sure that the US has the same capacity to force compliance, thankfully. Hell, after removing the Sunni political hegemony, it's pretty clear that a democracy would be most unkind to the traditional Western ideals. The Shi'a aren't so fond of them, and they are the majority.
The moves that are required to force compliance are very drastic indeed. I should hope that other methods are looked at before attempts to force the hands of the locals are made.
Yes, I think the country can be unified. <PC mode = off>The Iraqis just need to stop acting like selfish children, and I'm not sure when that's going to happen. Currently, Iraqi culture doesn't see anyone outside the family as worth sticking your neck out for. If change is worked within this system, maybe this loyalty to family can be expanded to all <Sect> is my family and then to all Iraqis are my family. But I'm pretty sure the change will be a generational one. The children may get it, given the right media spin and role models. This is what I see as the major stumbling block (and incidentally, the greatest reason for corruption) to Iraq regaining it's former stature; everyone is out to help his own family and damn anyone else.
<Steps down from the soapbox>
Well, if the children are the issue, there are bigger issues on the plate to deal with first. After Paul Bremer removed anyone that had been part of the Ba'ath Party from public office, many schools shut down as the principals of the schools had to be Ba'ath Party members in order to hold such a position. Shi'a or Kurd principals would be put in instead, and they'd get death threats and not rock up to their new positions. As such, you had a whole bunch of youth no longer going to school who were very angry. Add to that the disbanding of the Iraqi army, which left 400,000 soldiers out of work and angry with previous military training, and you get one hell of an explosion. Ex-military guys with skill and anger, and youths with anger looking for skills.
If the goal is to win back the next generation, it will probably have to be the generation after this one.